Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming

A climate coffee with Torsten Albrecht (PIK)

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Abstract:

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to amplifying feedbacks which can accelerate ice loss and lead to effectively irreversible retreat. We here analyse the distinct nature and risk of long-term ice loss for each individual drainage basin under different levels of warming. Depending on topographic and climatic conditions, we find that ice loss in some basins unfolds gradually with warming, whereas other basins are characterised by a critical threshold or tipping point beyond which large parts eventually disintegrate. A first threshold, potentially as low as 1–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, triggers the long-term collapse of ~40% of marine ice volume in West Antarctica. Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica, representing ~5 m of potential sea-level rise, are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C. Our results imply that the Antarctic Ice Sheet does not act as one single tipping element, but rather as several tipping systems interacting across drainage basins.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02554-0

Our speaker

Torsten is a Senior Scientist, Theme Lead in Ice Dynamics at PIK.

What is a Climate Coffee?

#climatecoffees are short (circa 40 min: 20 min talk + 20 min Q&A), relaxed meetings for scientists to share ideas, discuss methods, and communicate new results. They are open to speakers of all seniority; we especially encourage early-career scientists to become speakers. The Coffees are an exciting opportunity for scientists to build a network and disseminate recent results peer-to-peer. We invite researchers from across the climate science community to join us for this series of regular online knowledge exchange events.

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The Climate Coffees are organized by the Horizon Europe projects ObsSea4Clim, OCEAN ICE, TipESM, the National Center for Climate Research - DMI Danish Meteorological Institute and the European Climate Research Alliance.

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